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Weekly Direction for Countries and Counties

Among our values at Outlier, most important are the people we have in our lives, as we are parents and contributing members of the public like you. In addition to taking actions in our local community during the Coronavirus pandemic, we realize that the Outlier platform can bring you daily insights to understand the impact of the epidemic.

In today’s stories, analyzed with automated business analysis, we are reporting more findings based upon data shared by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU).

Here’s what we found out recently:

The Coronavirus has been impacting the world for months. Outlier had been analyzing the JHU data for a few months now. Previously, we’d only shared day-over-day changes with you. Now, we’ve been seeing meaningful insights at the weekly level too.

New confirmed cases for Orange County
New confirmed cases for Orange County

Our first weekly trend shows Orange County seeing a sustained increase in the number of new cases, but still accounts for only 0.5% of the total cases in the US. The number of new cases in Orange County this week is  7% higher than we would have expected if even previous upward trends had continued.

New confirmed cases in Russia
New confirmed cases in Russia

Russia meanwhile is seeing an exponential increase in new cases — last weeks’ case counts were 18% over where we would have expected based even on previously increased rates. Globally, Russia accounts for 12% of the confirmed cases.

New confirmed cases for Spain
New confirmed cases for Spain

While Spain accounts for 1% of the new cases globally, the country has seen a strong week over week drop in new cases — 36% below where it would have been had previous trends continued, for cases confirmed.

New confirmed cases for France
New confirmed cases for France

France’s new case count continues to decrease on a weekly basis and is now 54% below where we would have expected had the previous trend continued.

New confirmed cases for Massachusetts
New confirmed cases for Massachusetts

Meanwhile, Massachusetts is showing a week-over-week decrease in new cases and is 16% below expected. The state accounts for 5% of the newly confirmed cases in the US and is detailing plans to re-open.

Root Cause Analysis for Massachusetts Counties
Root Cause Analysis for Massachusetts Counties

Suffolk and Middlesex counties are contributing the most to this decline. 

Even Higher Infection Rate Hitting Chile

New confirmed cases for Chile
New confirmed cases for Chile

Chile’s case count is on the rise and accounts for 3% of global cases confirmed yesterday. We reported an initial new upward trend starting at the end of April, and now two weeks later they’re seeing an even higher sustained trend. The daily new case count seems to be settling in at a new normal, 79% above even the previous spike, as the country implements lock-down measures.

Declines in Cases Confirmed

New confirmed cases in Camden, New Jersey
New confirmed cases in Camden, New Jersey

Meanwhile, Camden County in New Jersey seems to have not just evened out, but at 36% below expected, to be consistently decreasing its daily new case count.

New confirmed cases in Georgia
New confirmed cases in Georgia

Despite having opened up a few weeks back, Georgia is still seeing a lower number of cases confirmed daily. The Peach State has decreased over 17% more than expected and accounted for 2% of the cases confirmed yesterday.

Root Cause Analysis for Georgia Counties
Root Cause Analysis for Georgia Counties

Neighboring counties, Gwinnett and DeKalb, are both contributing the most to this decline. 

We will continue to share these insights here, and you can sign up to be notified of unexpected findings related to Coronavirus in a newsletter. This is not a marketing newsletter and your email will only be used to share these insights.

Stay safe and informed out there!

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