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Is This What Flattening A Curve Looks Like?

Among our values at Outlier, most important are the people we have in our lives, as we are parents and contributing members of the public like you. In addition to taking actions in our local community during the Coronavirus pandemic, we realize that the Outlier platform can bring you daily insights to understand the impact of the epidemic.

In today’s stories, analyzed with automated business analysis, we are reporting more findings based upon data shared by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU).

Here’s what we found yesterday:

New confirmed cases in MA
New confirmed cases in MA

While New York has been the epicenter of the Coronavirus within the US, yesterday the virus was spreading outside of the epicenter within the state of Massachusetts which showed a surge in cases. Yesterday, the State confirmed 2,171, which is 14% higher than expected. Yesterday, Massachusetts was 4% of the total number of confirmed cases.

Root cause analysis for new confirmed cases for MA
Root cause analysis for new confirmed cases for MA

Outlier’s Root Cause Analysis feature shows that Suffolk (Boston) and Hampden counties  contributed the most to this story followed by Norfolk, Middlesex and Plymouth counties.

New confirmed cases for CT
New confirmed cases for CT

Connecticut too is experiencing a rise in new confirmed cases. Their increase day-over-day is 64% than expected. Connecticut contributed 2% of the day’s overall number of new cases. 

New confirmed cases for CT
New confirmed cases for CT

The contribution increase was mostly driven by new confirmed cases in New Haven, Hartford and Fairfield counties.

New confirmed case for Texas
New confirmed case for Texas

The Lone Star state of Texas is also seeing an increase in newly confirmed cases overnight. The increase is 68% day-over-day and 39% higher than expected.

New confirmed cases for Texas counties
New confirmed cases for Texas counties

More new confirmed cases are also appearing in other counties throughout the US including Texas in Harris Country, home of Houston. Other counties who are contributing to this uptick, include Denton, Bexar, El Paso and Travis.

There Is Good News Stateside

New confirmed cases for MI
New confirmed cases for MI

Among the many counties mentioned above that are increasing in new confirmed cases, Wayne County, MI is actually trending down as the number of cases is 20% lower today as compared to the previous day.

Even Better News Globally

New confirmed cases worldwide
New confirmed cases worldwide

We are starting to see the flattening of the curve! This Outlier Trend story shows the number of confirmed cases is flattening and even better trending downward.

Root Cause Analysis for worldwide new confirmed cases
Root Cause Analysis for worldwide new confirmed cases

Worldwide, new confirmed cases are trending down. Averaging 5% from the previous day, new confirmed cases are taking the lead in the US as compared to the UK, Denmark and Australia.

New confirmed cases for Spain
New confirmed cases for Spain

Good news continues to come out of Spain too. A persistent trend of new confirmed cases has been trending down, creating a New Normal story. To identify a New Normal story, Outlier’s model automatically identifies the large change, and adjusts its model accordingly. Since yesterday, new cases have been on average 29% lower than the previous days. 

We will continue to share these insights here, and you can sign up to be notified of unexpected findings related to Coronavirus in a newsletter. This is not a marketing newsletter and your email will only be used to share these insights.

Stay safe and informed out there!

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